Well another 24 hours has gone by, which means we are 24 hours closer to the Dec 5/6 event. Looking at the GFS/NAM model runs over the past several hours is starting to show a very stead agreement that the low pressure system is going to be too far east to really impact our area with precip. Furthermore, the low pressure system that is coming through today and tomorrow is not going to pull down enough cold air deep enough to ensure that the precip that does fall is frozen.
So what does this mean? Well, the chance for accumulating snow with this event it becoming less and less likely to occur. With that said, the temperature just above the surface is still rather cold and will support snow. If the above freezing surface layer is not very thick it is still rather likey that we will have periods of snow on Saturday and Saturday night.
What to expect? Northern DE has the best chance to get temperatures low enough to support snow. Unfortunately, they are also the most likely to get the least amount of precip from this system. Central DE has an equal chance and may spend most the day with rain and snow going back and forth. Southern DE is going to fall victim to the ocean and not get the temps cold enough to support any snow until later in the evening when the system is moving farther off shore and may limit any chances.
Overall, this system should be the one that provides our first snow of the season, even though I have had unconfirmed reports that we had brief snow flurries on the early morning of black Friday. I do not expect much, if any accumulation.
Finally, its also worth noting that we still have two days to go before this even occurs. The accuracy of each model run will improve starting now and we will have a much better idea of what is going to happen.
Below is a 12 hour accumulated precip for the overnight of 12/5 – 12/6.