Daily Discussion, Events

Dec 1 PM Discussion – Meteorological Winter Arrives

It’s winter time! Welcome meteorological winter. Yes, the “official” winter season does not start until later this month but for meteorologists, winter officially starts today!

Trends

If you noticed it was colder outside, your right, we are in the mist of pattern change. It’s not clear how powerful this new pattern will be just yet but its safe to say that the above average warmth we have been experiencing is going to be coming to an end.

Prime teleconections that are used to help determine mid range forecasts are beginning to do an about face. What this means is that the jet stream and major pressure patterns that influence the path of cold air will begin to change. If predictions for this winter hold true, this pattern change will put Delaware in an above average slot for cold and snow.

Events

Dec 5,6 – First winter storm track of the season! The GFS has been projecting an off-shore low pressure system moving up the coast starting on Dec 5 and going in to Dec 6. It has been rather consistent with this event actually happening.

What it hasn’t been consistent with thus far is it’s track. Although lately the majority of the models are showing it far enough off shore to allow for some cold air to be pulled down over our area while the moisture is in place, some models have it hugging the coast where the temperatures would not allow for enough cold air to enter to achieve a change over to snow until well after the bulk of the moisture has passed.

The next 24-48 hours will tell a lot about what is going to happen. As of right now, I expect the media to start hyping a weekend snow storm.

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