So I have been keeping a close eye on the models the past few days. Seems we are in for quite a roller coaster ride, not to mention a tricky period to predict the weather. In terms of Winter weather in our area, i’m thinking we are on the wrong end of this ride. There is a lot of time for this to change, as it just did in the past 24-48 hours, so this writeup is more of what the models are seeing “right now” and my confidence is not too terribly high.
Here’s how the coaster ride shapes up.
Dec 10,11,12 – High pressure moves in and brings in the coldest air of the season. Everyone in Delaware will be in the mid to upper 30’s for highs. Sussex county will push the low 40’s.
Dec 13,14 – Precip event #1 – This event looked really good on the models a few days ago but is now looking to largely be a rain maker for our area. The problem is that the models had the entrenched cold air remaining relatively put which would have made it possible for some snow. Now the models are retreating the cold and even the upper level temps are showing too warm to even consider this anything more than a rain event. My last hope on this system will be when the remains of the massive low pressure that moved through Tue/Wed clears and allows the models to pick up the system in the south more clearly. Temps during this span warm up quite a bit with everyone in the high 40’s to possibly the low 50’s.
Dec 15,16 – Precip event #2 – This event two days ago was a storm of biblical making. Playing on the heels of event #1 and the deep cold, this was going to be a classic coastal low that slammed us with a lot of moisture and a changeover to snow with decent accumulations for all. Of course, since then the models have changed that and now it’s looking to be suppressed to the south. Some runs have the precip shield missing us to the south completely. Even with the miss to the south, the wind should change to blowing from the south which will warm us up even more. Temps during this time, dare I say, will be in the mid to upper 50’s with possible a 60 degree mark beeing ticked somewhere.
Dec 17,18 – High pressure takes a grip across most of the eastern half of the country and will allow the flood gates of cold air to open once again. Temps tentatively looking to be back in the 30’s for highs.